Showers move in Friday; Cool temperatures will last through the weekend

A review of last night: Strong to severe thunderstorms were forecast to affect our area late Wednesday night/predawn early Thursday — but they did not materialize. Although all indices leading to a forecast of strong thunderstorms had high values, there was one (stubborn) issue. Last night, moisture content was high, instability was moderate to high, a cold front was moving into Northeast Michigan, and wind shear was remarkable.

The issue that prevented all indications of thunderstorms from becoming reality was a persistent cap — that means a thin layer of warm air situated above the surface. When a cap is in place, air from the surface rises into this warmer layer. This rising air is then colder than the surrounding warmer air. The colder air is more dense and it stops rising, which in turn stops the development of thunderstorm updrafts. If a cap were not in place, the rising air would not be hindered and storms would have intensified.

Our next storm system is moving eastward out of North Dakota and South Dakota. This will bring showers to Northeast Michigan Friday, beginning in the early-afternoon and continuing through the evening.

Through Friday night, rainfall amounts will range from about 0.5 to 1 inch across Northeast Michigan. Generally, lower amounts are anticipated to occur in Presque Isle County and higher amounts are expected southwest of Alpena.

Friday: Periods of rain are expected in the afternoon and evening. Early-morning temperatures will be in the upper 50s. Afternoon highs will reach only 72 degrees. Early-evening temperatures will be in the middle 60s.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy and breezy. Predawn temperatures will be in the upper 50s. Afternoon highs will get close to 72 degrees. Early-evening temperatures will be in the middle 60s.

Sunday: Partly cloudy and cool. The early-morning hours will start with temperatures in the lower 50s. Afternoon highs will be only around 69 degrees. Early-evening temperatures will be in the lower 60s.

For the rest of Northeast Michigan’s weather forecast, watch the latest weather video by clicking the weather tab at the top of the page.