Wintry mix changing to rain Thursday afternoon-evening

Afternoon temperatures reached the upper teens in Alpena today. The coldest air in the Lower 48 remained in the Upper Peninsula and Northern Minnesota. The frigid air mass will gradually retreat to the northeast. Warmer temperatures from the south will move in late-day Thursday.

Snow showers over Wisconsin and Minnesota are heading in the Upper Peninsula and will remain north of our area. Dry conditions will last through tomorrow morning. All of the cloud cover extending southward through the Plains will form into something more organized by midday Thursday. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will feed into this system — moisture coming up from the south will interact with chilly temperatures over the Great Lakes.

Temperatures will be climbing after midnight. Morning temperatures will be near 20 degrees with cloudy skies. Afternoon temperatures will get into the lower 30s as a wintry mix begins to move in. The wintry mix should pretty quickly change to rain showers with temperatures continuing to climb after sunset. High temperatures will reach about 38 degrees Thursday evening.

Warmer temperatures will reach our area late-day tomorrow. A chance of rain showers will linger early Friday, then drier conditions will move in Friday afternoon and evening. Friday will also be warm with highs in the lower 40s. The chance of snow is looking likely on Saturday and highs will be in the upper 20s.

Early thoughts for Saturday that are subject to change:

• Two bursts of heavier snow: Early Saturday and then Saturday night
• Lighter snow showers in the afternoon
• The greatest risk of ice buildup will be Saturday predawn to morning, mainly along and south of M-72, due to the potential of sleet and freezing rain.
• Some uncertainty still remains regarding how far north Saturday’s storm will track. A track farther north would bring more snow near and north of M-32 and a greater risk of ice south of Alpena. A track farther south would mean less snow and ice in Northeast Michigan.

For the rest of Northeast Michigan’s weather forecast, watch the latest weather video by clicking the weather tab at the top of the page.